My favoritism is well known by some. wxWidgets all the way. Nothing less.
As for the compiler/IDE combination, depends highly on what you prefer. Try them all. I like very much mingw combined with SlickEdit (my favorite IDE). But it's an expensive option that you can replace with mingw and CodeBlocks.
Microsoft compiler and debugger is perhaps the current best combo in the Windows environment (their IDE sucks in my opinion though, but SlickEdit upped my standards considerably). If you choose the wxWidget library, definitely go Microsoft and download the Express Edition. Its, of the compilers I had an opportunity to test, the one which provides the smallest object and executable sizes in the presence of this library... and I could almost swear fastest code.
If you end up liking windows programming and wxWidgets library, my advise is to not go out with friends for a while, work in the weekends and beg a little. Save $300. When you get them, buy SlickEdit. It integrates with Microsoft tools and you get the best of both worlds; the best compiler/debugger and the best IDE.
