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Travis Dane
01-09-2003, 11:26 PM
Just a thought that's been running a long time through my mind,

I was wandering about the importance of programmers in a few
years, almost every year new applications and games are
released, and almost all possible ideas,concepts and
requirements for games and applications start to slowly
dissapear.

In a few years there won't be much left to program!
The only reason why programmers keep creating games is
because of the inceasing graphics quality but one day we'll just
end up making another adventure game with a little bit better
graphics

Your opinion on this, because i'm really start to doubt a
programming future

face_master
01-09-2003, 11:28 PM
Believe it or not, not all programmers program games. There's always a need for applications by businesses and also there's embedded systems.

Travis Dane
01-09-2003, 11:34 PM
I ment applications as well,for everything there probably exist
a application or 5 that can perform the same task.

Of course this is assuming that whe all will still be using a
monitor in the next 10 years, maybe technology advances
new program are required but still game concepts keep
decreasing every year, and already you can see a billion
games based around the same thing, not offering much variation

Polymorphic OOP
01-09-2003, 11:38 PM
Even if you only were talking about games, there's no end in the visible future. Will movies stop when the special effects are perfect? No. Games are the same way -- it's a creative form of entertainment that's not solely for the purpose of making things "look good." As long as people have ideas, the industry will not end.

alpha
01-09-2003, 11:45 PM
even applications, there will always be updates to current apps. that are out. maybe an app that will run on new OS's, or new OS's that will be programmed. also with systems. there may be new technology that will need new software that nothing out there does yet. I agree with the above stated, I don't think an end to programming is near. I think it will only die if people lose an interest for it.

compjinx
01-09-2003, 11:45 PM
I do believe I saw a quote by the a fellow that worked at the patent office around the turn of the century, it read something along the lines of "Everything that can be invented has already been invented". What a shock it would be to the poor fellow to see all the inventions that have been developed since.

Travis Dane
01-10-2003, 12:01 AM
Right, However i do see more and more similarity's between
games these days.
Also you see that games are depended of graphics more and
more (that however is the first thing i look at in a game).

adrianxw
01-10-2003, 03:30 AM
I've been programming for more than 25 years now. It is certainly true that some of the same old problems have come around several times. The difference really is in the technology available and peoples expectations of it. Both increase seemingly exponentially.

We have gone from fixed terminals, to clusters, to networks and now the "future is mobile" - but make sure it's fast, reliable, works in a subway, is just as up-to-date as my desktop, (without me needing to do anything of course - it should all just work straight out of the box)... and who knows after that?

In short, I think there is a bit of life left in the business yet.

vasanth
01-10-2003, 03:46 AM
Believe me. You still havent seen the begining of it......
There is going to be a lot more advancement in the comming decade or so.. What ever we imagined today will be possible.. We will be requiring programmers to program everything from your text book of the future to the the comode in your bath... This is just a foresight for next 10 years.. WHat might happen in the next 50 years... THink about it.. it is mind bogling...

ammar
01-10-2003, 04:40 AM
There is always something new ( at least for creative programmers), people used to thing like you before 10 years, and they will thing like that after 10 years, and again, there is always something new...

And with the development of hardware, new features are made availiable which will cause the creation of new ideas...

vasanth
01-10-2003, 09:34 AM
When electricity was discovered.. The then American President said "What can we do with it".... So there is going to be new stuff and new concepts..

Govtcheez
01-10-2003, 09:35 AM
> However i do see more and more similarity's between
games these days.
Also you see that games are depended of graphics more and
more

Both of these are because games are now more mass marketed than ever before - they've found formulas that will sell games and make money, and they'll exploit them.

-=SoKrA=-
01-10-2003, 11:01 AM
As long as Microsoft keeps releasing new OS's that make apps incompatible there will be a need to update them. I very much doubt MS is going to stop and so programmers will be needed.
As well, with the new PDA's having more and more memory and power, more and more apps will be developed for them.
Over the years, a lot of people have said that everything is invented. After they said that, something revolitionized the world. I think the most probable is that they will invent a new kind of computers completely uncompatible with today's apps. A lot of programmers will be needed to fix problems...

adrianxw
01-10-2003, 11:34 AM
>>>
As long as Microsoft keeps releasing new OS's that make apps incompatible there will be a need to update them.
<<<

I don't think that's fair. I have had some of my software running on 3.11, (Aldus PageMaker for example), and is running unmodified and not recompiled on XP. I agree that some stuff won't work, but in the main things do on Windows.

How many other systems can say the same? Sure you can recompile things with open source stuff. Sure, if the "standard" linux becomes a reality rather than a discussion topic. Sure if all Unixes became a coherent whole.

I also have been in the business long enough to remeber the age when every system had it's own proprietary OS and by definition, nothing would work anywhere else.

-=SoKrA=-
01-10-2003, 11:49 AM
Originally posted by adrianxw
[B]I don't think that's fair. I have had some of my software running on 3.11, (Aldus PageMaker for example), and is running unmodified and not recompiled on XP.[B]
I'm impressed. Some software will probably work, but the apps that need some of the 'advanced' features, will need some stuff to be changed. Some simple programs stopped working when I upgraded as well. You can't be sure what will and what wont. I'm not trying to say that MS can't do anything right, but when you upgrade some strange stuff can happen (Eg. having to reintstall the whole works enviroment and Nero for some starange reason).
I'm not sure why, but lately I just can't help myself saying bad stuff about MS.

zzzz
01-10-2003, 11:50 AM
Think of programming like science (hence computer science).

Just because there's thousands of years worth of research in a given area (rocks, enviroment, human anatomy, etc)

all of that research is used to better the scientist.

Now look at computers, which are rapidly growing and expanding. You may say we're close to the pinnacle of computers, I mean look how far computers have come in the past 20 years when computers like the altair were run off of BASIC.

But!!! We're not even close to the pinnacle of computers. Take something like AI, AI was originally thought to be invented sometime early in this century. But real AI is still probably thousands of years away.

So until there's fly cars, robotics pet animals, talking trees, and Mechanical women, there's always going to be a need for programmers.

:)

Govtcheez
01-10-2003, 11:51 AM
That'll happen whenever you make a major upgrade, though - everything that compiled and worked fine on some old system has a good chance of not working on a new one.

> But real AI is still probably thousands of years away.

I say 100 years, tops. Technology is accelerating as the time between paradigm shifts is greatly decreasing.

Shiro
01-10-2003, 12:07 PM
>In a few years there won't be much left to program!

A few? There are so much things not created yet. Just take a look at all those new ideas in telecommunications, think about all those things IT-marketeers tell about what computers can do and we haven't realized yet, think about AI and much more. Usually each new technology opens a new area of applications and will often also applied by people working in existing areas. Not that each new technology is succesfull, but it keeps us busy. So I think there will be need for programmers for a long time.

Travis Dane
01-10-2003, 02:08 PM
Of course applications for hardware divices will always be
required, but im talking a little about the general applications,
For typing letters, burning software, email etc.
And games. Of course programmers are always required for
various task like programming machines and such.
But as i said im focussing on the app and game industry

zzzz
01-10-2003, 02:17 PM
Originally posted by Govtcheez
That'll happen whenever you make a major upgrade, though - everything that compiled and worked fine on some old system has a good chance of not working on a new one.

> But real AI is still probably thousands of years away.

I say 100 years, tops. Technology is accelerating as the time between paradigm shifts is greatly decreasing.

Real AI??? 100 years? I don't know about that. Maybe I over stated with 1000's, but not 100 years tops. I mean how can you program artificial memory. It would takes 10's - 100's of thousands of if statements, lol :cool:

Anyways, I agree, even if no new programs were ever created, all the old software would have to be upgraded.

Software development and programming is expected to be one of the most in demand jobs through 2010 and far beyond according to a lot of analysts. If you want a more secure future, being a programmer is definately one way to do it.

Govtcheez
01-10-2003, 02:20 PM
> Real AI??? 100 years? I don't know about that.

Think about the state of computing 100 years ago.

> It would takes 10's - 100's of thousands of if statements, lol

Well, if you did it that way :rolleyes: Besides - code length's not really an issue - Windows is millions and millions of lines...

> email

This will change as communications protocols change and the method of input changes.

zzz
01-10-2003, 03:10 PM
Originally posted by Govtcheez
> Real AI??? 100 years? I don't know about that.

Think about the state of computing 100 years ago.

> It would takes 10's - 100's of thousands of if statements, lol

Well, if you did it that way :rolleyes: Besides - code length's not really an issue - Windows is millions and millions of lines...

> email

This will change as communications protocols change and the method of input changes.

>> Real AI??? 100 years? I don't know about that.

Think about the state of computing 100 years ago.

I don't think you can reflect on the growth of computing in the past 100 years and compare it to the next 100 years.

AI is far too complex and expensive for a company to focus on it without any good cause. The likeliness of it not coming out within 100 years would have more to do with business than actual programming.

So several hundres to a thousand years seems more reasonable to me.

---
> It would takes 10's - 100's of thousands of if statements, lol

>>Well, if you did it that way :rolleyes: Besides - code length's not really an issue - Windows is millions and millions of lines...

twas a joke :cool:

And artificial intelligence, and I mean real artificial intelligence would be a heck of a lot more complex than windows :)

>>This will change as communications protocols change and the method of input changes.

true, to an extent. But this won't effect the one of the most difficult aspects of ai, again artificial memory.

How can you simulate human memory. And think, artificial memory is only a very small portion of AI.

adrianxw
01-10-2003, 03:25 PM
Travis Dane:

>>> But as i said im focussing on the app and game industry

The game industry may have a high profile, but is a very small player in the global IT market. App's are, by your definition, evrything that is not a game, and therefore the vast majority of IT work.

Devices, of whatever kind, are the cornerstone of todays society. Hell, there are processors in everything these days. That will continue. Who do you think is programming those chips?

Right now, I am working on satellite ground stations for telecoms. The handsets have micros in, and we have a department filled with people writing software for them. The satellites are filled with various computer systems, and very specialised stuff it is too. The ground stations are BIG, and have hundreds of different computers in them. The gateway to the terrestrial networks are incredibly complicated and have several teams of engineers working on them....

just so someone can pick up a phone and dial a number somewhere. Think bigger.

zzz:

>>> How can you simulate human memory

Surely the memory content is relatively straightforward, consisting of fragments of sensory input, all of which could be synthesised. It is the heuristics of matching the disparrate inputs from those same sensory inputs to the actual memory that is not currently understood.

vasanth
01-11-2003, 07:10 AM
Originally posted by zzzz
Real AI??? 100 years? I don't know about that. Maybe I over stated with 1000's, but not 100 years tops. I mean how can you program artificial memory. It would takes 10's - 100's of thousands of if statements, lol :cool:

Anyways, I agree, even if no new programs were ever created, all the old software would have to be upgraded.

Software development and programming is expected to be one of the most in demand jobs through 2010 and far beyond according to a lot of analysts. If you want a more secure future, being a programmer is definately one way to do it.

Why is that we always attribute AI to present day programming constructs and say how tuff it is to program... May be in the future we will have memory and processors mimicing the human brain.. Already we have a lot of research going on in the feild of Neural technology...... I think real AI is around 250 to 300 years away..

-KEN-
01-11-2003, 09:18 AM
I'd go with cheez on the 100 years bid for AI programming. Technology is lunging ahead at such a rapid pace, I don't see any reason why it should slow down so much that "real" AI should be put off anywhere in the "thousands of years form now" department.

But then again, it's 2003 - according to people years ago, we should have moon colonies and all be whizzing around in personal space craft.

So who can say? I'd relate this conversation to those scientists in the 50s and 60s who thought we'd be teleporting from place to place with our own personal Moon Nymphs -- we just don't know, but we could make a fair guess (and, of course, still be off by a few decades :)) about it all.

>>May be in the future we will have memory and processors mimicing the human brain

And maybe in a few years cars will have 8 legs and drive across water (sorry, I just had to do it :))

On the current state of programming in general, people will always need new code to run their machines. There are so many machines out there nowadays where it's rediculous to think we'll ever run out of things to program in our lifetimes (including "Apps and Games", as you put it).

Ben_Robotics
06-23-2003, 08:51 PM
hey,

im a robot programmer who is doing extensive reseach on medical robotics, hoping to one day (in the very near future), make a difference in this field. So even if everything else fails to progress, in terms of programming, i can assure you that robot programming will not only advance but also become even more important in our every day lives, thanks to programming languages we are all using today!

So there is a bright future for programmers and computer scientists!

tnx,
Ben

Eibro
06-23-2003, 10:02 PM
Hey, what if we program robots to program other robots? Itt'd be a vicious robot-programming cycle. Maybe then they'd enslave mankind and use the humans to supply them with energy.
Hmmm, I could make a movie...


(Oh and sorry Ben, I know this is the second time i've posted a stupid reply to one of your posts :) )

Govtcheez
06-23-2003, 10:17 PM
Wow, that's a hell of a bump.

Try to follow some etiquette here, ben.