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stevesmithx
01-08-2009, 09:52 AM
I read that Queen of England had wondered why no one had predicted the current economic crash.
Looks like someone did and nobody listened to him.
I am not an economist.
But I find the way he predicted the current economic meltdown was amazing and horrifying at the same time.
I do not know who this guy was,until i watched this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw) video.

Salem
01-08-2009, 10:06 AM
Is that part of a verifiable sequence of predictions?

Or just some kook on a lucky streak of 1.
Like winning the lottery, whatever you claim about your success one week really doesn't matter if you fail to produce the following weeks.

stevesmithx
01-08-2009, 10:13 AM
maybe.
But it still looks like that the guy knows what he is saying.

Salem
01-08-2009, 10:33 AM
Same old same old to me.

There's some kind of disaster.

The media scouts round for someone, anyone, who predicted it. There's always someone in such a large pool.

They enjoy their 15 minutes of fame and are never heard of again.

"can no more predict the future than a tea-leaf knows the history of the East India Company".

stevesmithx
01-08-2009, 10:57 AM
Same old same old to me.

There's some kind of disaster.

The media scouts round for someone, anyone, who predicted it. There's always someone in such a large pool.

They enjoy their 15 minutes of fame and are never heard of again.

I agree our world is not matrix and no oracle can predict the future.
But why would anyone choose a losing bet in gambling?
Of course i might be wrong to draw conclusions from a video.



"can no more predict the future than a tea-leaf knows the history of the East India Company".

Good one. :D

laserlight
01-08-2009, 11:11 AM
But why would anyone choose a losing bet in gambling?
Because they thought it was actually a winning bet.

Salem
01-08-2009, 11:17 AM
Here's how the scam works.

Pick 1024 people. To half of them say A will happen, and to the other half say that ~A will happen.

Irrespective of the outcome, you discard half the pool (down to 512), and repeat.

After 10 iterations, you're down to 1 person who thinks you're god, having apparently predicted 10 successful things in a row.

whiteflags
01-08-2009, 11:18 AM
But why would anyone choose a losing bet in gambling?
Well if you want to follow his investing advice that's your business, but read one of his books or something. I wouldn't pretend that he's always going to be right, or that his long term investment strategy is what everyone needs. He is simply there to make an opposing viewpoint for the media.

In journalism, to report a newsworthy issue objectively (at least on paper) you learn that you need at least three experts: the opposing extremes, and a moderate. You point out where they agree after introducing the story and letting everyone have their say and you've got yourself a story. Never take what anyone says in an appearance on the news as a consult.

To answer your metaphor: No one wins until all the chips are down.

stevesmithx
01-08-2009, 12:05 PM
After 10 iterations, you're down to 1 person who thinks you're god, having apparently predicted 10 successful things in a row.



Because they thought it was actually a winning bet.
Then that ONE person is one who thought the winning bet was actually what others thought as losing bet and vice versa.
[yeah i know, i take things too literally at sometimes. :p]



Well if you want to follow his investing advice that's your business, but read one of his books or something. I wouldn't pretend that he's always going to be right, or that his long term investment strategy is what everyone needs. He is simply there to make an opposing viewpoint for the media.

In journalism, to report a newsworthy issue objectively (at least on paper) you learn that you need at least three experts: the opposing extremes, and a moderate. You point out where they agree after introducing the story and letting everyone have their say and you've got yourself a story. Never take what anyone says in an appearance on the news as a consult.

Hmm,Of course opposing extremes in media indeed does create a good story.
That makes a lot of sense now.


To answer your metaphor: No one wins until all the chips are down.

Well said! :)

abachler
01-08-2009, 12:22 PM
Ultimately its all a zero sum game until the rich cheat and buy a congressional vote for a 700 billion dollar bailout.

I've predicted every major economic shift for the last 20 years, then again no president I've ever voted for has won, so if you want to know what our economic policy should be, I'm YourMan, if you want to know who is going to win the election, I'm !YourMan.

And is it me or does my post count seem to be going down?