Quote Originally Posted by mike_g View Post
I was talking to this guy that loves gambling the other day, and he had this theory about how to win lots of money.

Using a roulette example (ignoring 0 for simplicity sake) he said that each time one colour follows a colour of the same type the probability of the ball landing on the opposing colour doubles. EG: 3 blacks in a row means that on the next spin theres a 1:8 probability that by betting red you would win.

I cant see how that would work. The way i see it is that you would still 2:1 odds (or perhaps only a tiny fraction less) as the result would be relevant to the point in time that you place the bet.

His argument was that it was due to the law of averages, which to him meant that he was right. AFAIK the law of averages was made up to measure the behavior of atoms when there was no accurate way of doing so and only really applies to orders of great magnitude.

Anyone know whats right here?


The method he is hitting on is called progressive gambling. It is true that for any single instance of the roll, neglecting greens, its near 50/50 change to land on one particular color. However, the odds for successive same color results decrement with each spin. The way to win, is to bet twice the money you bet on the previous round.
Round One:
bet $1 on red.
Lands on black-.........
Round Two:
bet $3 on red.
Lands on black-.........
Round Three:
bet $5
Lands on red-yey. Collect $10 dollars, you made $1.
Granted, there is a possibility to continue rolling blacks, however it is unlikely--and thats what you are betting on. The only way to lose is to lose more than half your money.