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Lol, thats confusing.

Ok, my last attempt to explain it:

There is a 2/3 probablility of winning by switching from the outset. Your odds don't change once you select the first door. This is because, at the start there...

Thats not how it works. You have to remember the host removes a door with a donkey. Theres only a 1/3 chance that he has 2 donkeys. I dident get it at first either. Good luck figuring it out ;)

Mario, robwhit: try splitting the doors into 2 categories.

One door you have chose.
Two doors you have not.

Out of both of the two doors there is a 2/3 chance to win.

Now make a truth table...

Look at it this way, when you start you pick a door. lets split the doors between you and the host:

You: door
Host: door, door
We dont know whats behind any doors; only the host does.

At this...

Yes, but because this is a gameshow we can assume the host knows the winning door. Now he is not going to open a door with the treasure behind it; what would be the point in making a choice then? Its...

Actually that makes sense now as the host would not open the winning door as that would not make good tv. So by switching you would be moving from 1/3 to 2/3 chance of winning. So yeah I get it now :D

Yeah, I'm with Mario on this. My reasoning would be exactly the same.

I'd go berserk rip the doors out, grab the money, mount a donkey and charge off.

Ok, cool. I was pretty sure I must have been right. Shame I couldnt seem to convince the dude tho. I guess hes going to have to keep paying his stupid peoples tax then.

I was talking to this guy that loves gambling the other day, and he had this theory about how to win lots of money.

Using a roulette example (ignoring 0 for simplicity sake) he said that each time...