Probability Help - Math Geniuses Here
Trying to get the most accurate pre-flop odds for this scenario:
You are dealt two cards out of a standard deck of 52. You want to calculate the odds of getting two additional cards that you want on the flop, which will offer you 3 opportunities to get the two cards.
Here are some examples.. cards_out == the number of cards you need that are still available
So, I could calculate the odds of getting one card on the 1st flop card.. then add to the odds of getting your second card on the 2nd or 3rd flop card..
Or, I could calculate the odds of getting one card on the 1st or 2nd flop card.. then add to the odds of getting your second card on the 3rd flop card.
(cards_out / 50) + [100 - ( (49-cards_out/49) * (48-cards_out/48) )]
There is also yet another combination.. getting the card you want on the 1st flop card.. not getting what you want on the 2nd flop card.. and then getting the second card you wanted on the 3rd flop card...
[100 - ( (50-cards_out/50) * (49-cards_out/49) )] + (cards_out / 48)
(cards_out / 50) + (cards_out / 48)
Q: Which method would offer the best representation of your odds of getting two cards you need on the flop? should I perform all calculations, and then average them?? Is the difference so negligable that it doesn't matter..??