Programmer Future

Think of programming like science (hence computer science).

Just because there's thousands of years worth of research in a given area (rocks, enviroment, human anatomy, etc)

all of that research is used to better the scientist.

Now look at computers, which are rapidly growing and expanding. You may say we're close to the pinnacle of computers, I mean look how far computers have come in the past 20 years when computers like the altair were run off of BASIC.

But!!! We're not even close to the pinnacle of computers. Take something like AI, AI was originally thought to be invented sometime early in this century. But real AI is still probably thousands of years away.

So until there's fly cars, robotics pet animals, talking trees, and Mechanical women, there's always going to be a need for programmers.

:)

That'll happen whenever you make a major upgrade, though - everything that compiled and worked fine on some old system has a good chance of not working on a new one.

> But real AI is still probably thousands of years away.

I say 100 years, tops. Technology is accelerating as the time between paradigm shifts is greatly decreasing.

>In a few years there won't be much left to program!

A few? There are so much things not created yet. Just take a look at all those new ideas in telecommunications, think about all those things IT-marketeers tell about what computers can do and we haven't realized yet, think about AI and much more. Usually each new technology opens a new area of applications and will often also applied by people working in existing areas. Not that each new technology is succesfull, but it keeps us busy. So I think there will be need for programmers for a long time.

Of course applications for hardware divices will always be
required, but im talking a little about the general applications,
For typing letters, burning software, email etc.
And games. Of course programmers are always required for
various task like programming machines and such.
But as i said im focussing on the app and game industry

Quote:

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Originally posted by Govtcheez
That'll happen whenever you make a major upgrade, though - everything that compiled and worked fine on some old system has a good chance of not working on a new one.

> But real AI is still probably thousands of years away.

I say 100 years, tops. Technology is accelerating as the time between paradigm shifts is greatly decreasing.

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Real AI??? 100 years? I don't know about that. Maybe I over stated with 1000's, but not 100 years tops. I mean how can you program artificial memory. It would takes 10's - 100's of thousands of if statements, lol :cool:

Anyways, I agree, even if no new programs were ever created, all the old software would have to be upgraded.

Software development and programming is expected to be one of the most in demand jobs through 2010 and far beyond according to a lot of analysts. If you want a more secure future, being a programmer is definately one way to do it.

> Real AI??? 100 years? I don't know about that.

Think about the state of computing 100 years ago.

> It would takes 10's - 100's of thousands of if statements, lol

Well, if you did it that way :rolleyes: Besides - code length's not really an issue - Windows is millions and millions of lines...

> email

This will change as communications protocols change and the method of input changes.

Quote:

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Originally posted by Govtcheez
> Real AI??? 100 years? I don't know about that.

Think about the state of computing 100 years ago.

> It would takes 10's - 100's of thousands of if statements, lol

Well, if you did it that way :rolleyes: Besides - code length's not really an issue - Windows is millions and millions of lines...

> email

This will change as communications protocols change and the method of input changes.

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>> Real AI??? 100 years? I don't know about that.

Think about the state of computing 100 years ago.

I don't think you can reflect on the growth of computing in the past 100 years and compare it to the next 100 years.

AI is far too complex and expensive for a company to focus on it without any good cause. The likeliness of it not coming out within 100 years would have more to do with business than actual programming.

So several hundres to a thousand years seems more reasonable to me.

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> It would takes 10's - 100's of thousands of if statements, lol

>>Well, if you did it that way :rolleyes: Besides - code length's not really an issue - Windows is millions and millions of lines...

twas a joke :cool:

And artificial intelligence, and I mean real artificial intelligence would be a heck of a lot more complex than windows :)

>>This will change as communications protocols change and the method of input changes.

true, to an extent. But this won't effect the one of the most difficult aspects of ai, again artificial memory.

How can you simulate human memory. And think, artificial memory is only a very small portion of AI.

Travis Dane:

>>> But as i said im focussing on the app and game industry

The game industry may have a high profile, but is a very small player in the global IT market. App's are, by your definition, evrything that is not a game, and therefore the vast majority of IT work.

Devices, of whatever kind, are the cornerstone of todays society. Hell, there are processors in everything these days. That will continue. Who do you think is programming those chips?

Right now, I am working on satellite ground stations for telecoms. The handsets have micros in, and we have a department filled with people writing software for them. The satellites are filled with various computer systems, and very specialised stuff it is too. The ground stations are BIG, and have hundreds of different computers in them. The gateway to the terrestrial networks are incredibly complicated and have several teams of engineers working on them....

just so someone can pick up a phone and dial a number somewhere. Think bigger.

zzz:

>>> How can you simulate human memory

Surely the memory content is relatively straightforward, consisting of fragments of sensory input, all of which could be synthesised. It is the heuristics of matching the disparrate inputs from those same sensory inputs to the actual memory that is not currently understood.

Quote:

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Originally posted by zzzz
Real AI??? 100 years? I don't know about that. Maybe I over stated with 1000's, but not 100 years tops. I mean how can you program artificial memory. It would takes 10's - 100's of thousands of if statements, lol :cool:

Anyways, I agree, even if no new programs were ever created, all the old software would have to be upgraded.

Software development and programming is expected to be one of the most in demand jobs through 2010 and far beyond according to a lot of analysts. If you want a more secure future, being a programmer is definately one way to do it.

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Why is that we always attribute AI to present day programming constructs and say how tuff it is to program... May be in the future we will have memory and processors mimicing the human brain.. Already we have a lot of research going on in the feild of Neural technology...... I think real AI is around 250 to 300 years away..

I'd go with cheez on the 100 years bid for AI programming. Technology is lunging ahead at such a rapid pace, I don't see any reason why it should slow down so much that "real" AI should be put off anywhere in the "thousands of years form now" department.

But then again, it's 2003 - according to people years ago, we should have moon colonies and all be whizzing around in personal space craft.

So who can say? I'd relate this conversation to those scientists in the 50s and 60s who thought we'd be teleporting from place to place with our own personal Moon Nymphs -- we just don't know, but we could make a fair guess (and, of course, still be off by a few decades :)) about it all.

>>May be in the future we will have memory and processors mimicing the human brain

And maybe in a few years cars will have 8 legs and drive across water (sorry, I just had to do it :))

On the current state of programming in general, people will always need new code to run their machines. There are so many machines out there nowadays where it's rediculous to think we'll ever run out of things to program in our lifetimes (including "Apps and Games", as you put it).

hey,

im a robot programmer who is doing extensive reseach on medical robotics, hoping to one day (in the very near future), make a difference in this field. So even if everything else fails to progress, in terms of programming, i can assure you that robot programming will not only advance but also become even more important in our every day lives, thanks to programming languages we are all using today!

So there is a bright future for programmers and computer scientists!

tnx,
Ben

Hey, what if we program robots to program other robots? Itt'd be a vicious robot-programming cycle. Maybe then they'd enslave mankind and use the humans to supply them with energy.
Hmmm, I could make a movie...


(Oh and sorry Ben, I know this is the second time i've posted a stupid reply to one of your posts :) )

Wow, that's a hell of a bump.

Try to follow some etiquette here, ben.