Speculative media

This is a discussion on Speculative media within the A Brief History of Cprogramming.com forums, part of the Community Boards category; I've been following the price of oil pretty much everyday since January of this year. Not even a week ago ...

  1. #1
    Super Moderator VirtualAce's Avatar
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    Speculative media

    I've been following the price of oil pretty much everyday since January of this year. Not even a week ago you could not find a news story that said we would ever see oil prices drop.

    Now that it has lost $15 dollars in just 3 days which is more of a drop in 3 days than it has seen in the past two years there are 'optimistic' stories popping up everywhere. Some are saying the bottom could fall out of oil and we could be down once again to 50 to 60 dollars a barrel.

    This is just nonsense. How can one week make the difference between doomsday reports of $200 a barrel and overly optimistic projections of $60 a barrel.

    Something's amiss with the media. I'm thinking it's their lack of facts. I wish they would report on 'happenings' and stop reporting on 'could be' or 'may be'. They really suck at the latter.

    It's actually pretty simple:

    • Oil makes gains in stock - news stories of impending doom and outrageous prices cause thousands to read the stories - IE: profits for the media.
    • Oil nets big losses in stock - shocking stories of extremely low oil prices cause thousands to read the stories - IE: profits for the media.


    Anyone notice a trend? Who can you rely on now for good information instead of all this speculative hogwash? Shocking sells and the media has gotten very good at picking which stories are and which ones are not. Perhaps our media is our own worst enemy.

    If you google on price of oil you will notice this is the current trend.
    • Some are still overly pessimistic projecting huge price gains causing huge problems.
    • Some are sort of middle of the road saying they are not sure what will happen next. Usually they sway from really pessimistic to really optimistic. Even though they try to be middle ground they come off as not being able to find it.
    • Some are overly optimistic. Where did this come from? 3 days and the media is starting to change the trend of their stories? What happened to all the 'experts' who predicted this and that horrible thing. Now we have just as many 'experts' predicting the exact opposite.


    All I know is basic economics. Supply and demand always win out regardless of who tries to cheat the system. Demand is dropping (like many of us already thought), reserves are at their highest since 1997, and the amount of petroleum being stored in the gulf on ships and in tanks is nearly overflowing. That is....if those sources are right.

    Notice the current 'housing crisis' has almost been turned into a 'housing scandal' and investigation into illegal practices. I expect much the same for oil if the bubble starts to pop.
    Last edited by VirtualAce; 07-17-2008 at 08:14 PM.

  2. #2
    Jack of many languages Dino's Avatar
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    Something's amiss with the media. I'm thinking it's their lack of facts. I wish they would report on 'happenings' and stop reporting on 'could be' or 'may be'. They really suck at the latter.
    Nothing new here. All the media is doing is creating drama, whichever way the coin flips, for ratings, for their own agenda. I think they're like a few bench judges. They're put in place to interpret facts and apply law, and they get on their high horses and start making law.

    I was watching the sports news a couple months ago. One team had just lost their first game after a winning "streak" of 15 games (ok, I'll go for "streak" there). But, immediately after the game, the news guy wondered how long their new "losing streak" would last. One game? Give me a friggin' break.

    I think about 60% of all this oil price crap is well organized and precisely orchestrated.
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  3. #3
    (?<!re)tired Mario F.'s Avatar
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    I've seen the same. Yesterday, over here they were already announcing prices could drop below $100 until the end of the year. Total nonsense.

    I have one comment and one concern...

    Comment:
    The only safe route is to pick my news sources carefully. I trust only a couple newspaper in Portugal, plus only a few newspaper worldwide. I never trust (or am interested in fact) on news coming from generalist TV stations and rarely pay attention to news centric tv stations. In fact... I think TV journalism is the worst of them all with only a few exceptions (and these exceptions are not TV stations, but specific TV shows).

    Concern (two concerns in fact):
    The poor journalism that is been a trademark worldwide is slowly eroding the profession and, on this particular case, is only serving the speculators - arguably the guilty party on all this market prices.
    The programmer’s wife tells him: “Run to the store and pick up a loaf of bread. If they have eggs, get a dozen.”
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    Originally Posted by brewbuck:
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    Woof, woof! zacs7's Avatar
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    In the 1970s they said petrol would be gone by 1990-2000. I guess the only people who actually know anything is the oil bosses... Perhaps they'll soon disproove global warming -- sick of being hammered for riding a 2 stroke :@

    It would seem the media have nothing else to run, and would rather go around in circles about oil than actually get a story.

  5. #5
    Jack of many languages Dino's Avatar
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    My thought on global warming...

    We're still coming off the last ice age. Duh.
    Mac and Windows cross platform programmer. Ruby lover.

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    12/20: Mario F.:I never was, am not, and never will be, one to shut up in the face of something I think is fundamentally wrong.

    Amen brother!

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    Registered User whiteflags's Avatar
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    The poles have already started swapping, good thing the news doesn't care.

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